Can Wal-Mart Survive Generation Y?

I found a post today on a financial analysis blog, SeekingAlpha.com, It is so provocative and insightful, I am going to share it in (nearly) its entirety.

The basic question is whether Millennials will find Wal-Mart's value proposition appealing -- and if they don't, what are the implications for Wal-Mart's future? I don't know whether or not Millennials will or will not embrace Wal-Mart, but as Ken Gronbach, the author of this post points out, it's not a slam dunk. In fact, after I posted the link on Twitter, one of my Gen Y followers replied to the question, "I hope not!"

"(Wal-Mart's) retail concept is not about selection or breadth of assortment and it is certainly not about short runs of anything. This concept, therefore, would struggle with the fashion tastes of a new market and therein lies the problem. Generation Y, born 1985-2004 and currently between the ages of 5-24 and the biggest generation in U.S. history is the new market. And new markets generally have very fickle tastes. If they don’t want something, it doesn’t matter if it is free–they just don’t want it. Wal-Mart is very used to dictating what their customers should buy–large quantities of very cheap retailer’s choice items."

"Wal-Mart is a Baby Boomer-based company. Boomers were born 1945 to 1964, and Wal-Mart has decades of experience catering to the clearly defined tastes of this generation who are currently 45- to 64-years-old. Wal-Mart has figured out what the mature Boomer market buys. They have also refined this demand to the narrowest selection possible, almost telling Boomers what they will buy. Boomers in turn are okay with this because when you are between 45- and 64-years-old you have pretty defined tastes and preferences that influence your buying of stuff. If Wal-Mart does not have what a Boomer really wants, but does have something close at a very low price, the Boomer will buy it."

"So where is the rub? It’s simple. When consumers hit about 50 years old, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, their demand for stuff begins to subside. At 60 years old a person pretty much has all the stuff he or she needs and then some. At 60, one’s body has stopped changing so one can wear clothes longer, a lot longer. If you want to see what was fashionable thirty years ago go to a Miami retirement community. The point here is that the bloom is off the rose of the Boomers’ consumption of things. The Boomer population is a huge bell shaped curve with many Boomers turning sixty at its leading edge and with its very top cresting at 50-years-old in 2007. All of this means that Wal-Mart needs to find a new market fast if it wants to continue doing business."

"But where does Wal-Mart turn? The two U.S. generations over 60 do not have the critical mass to serve their infrastructure, and besides, for the most part they have stopped consuming. The U.S. population now 25- to 44-years-old is a non-homogeneous combination of the small native born Gen. X (nine million fewer than the Boomers) and the free standing market of Latino immigrants."

"So who’s left? It is Gen. Y, the largest and most powerful generation of consumers this nation has ever seen. Will they be the solution to Wal-Mart’s sales problems?"

"No. Gen. Y is an emerging market, a huge bell-shaped curve with its peak at age 19. They are inhaling entertainment products, fashion, food, electronics and transportation. Selection is everything to them. They do not care about low price unless it is exactly the item they want. Their tastes change daily. They don’t know what they will want six months from now. Wal-Mart’s limited selection, low price offering to the Boomer will not and cannot translate to Gen. Y."

"Oh yes, and one more thing. Gen. Y is on track to become the greenest and most humanitarian generation in U.S. history. If one wants to do business with them they had better be very green and very nice to their fellow mankind. And popular perception is that Wal-Mart has a dismal record on both accounts. Perception is reality. This fact could seriously injure Wal-Mart’s business all by itself."

Gen Y: Young and Poor in America?

At my stage of life, with kids in college and in the midst of a recession, I am thinking more of downsizing than upsizing, paying down rather than taking on. I have just about every non-consumable item I'll ever need, and I prefer to 'repair' over 'replace' unless absolutely necessary. The economic engine will have to look elsewhere for a jumpstart.

Several new reports suggest the jumpstart won't come from Millennials. Each analyzed publicly available government information to assess the economic condition of today's young adults relative to past generations at the same age. Warning! The reports make depressing reading. Here are some 'highlights':

Economic State of Young America. This report, by DEMOS, a Washington DC-based research group, takes a comprehensive look at jobs & income, health care, debt and savings, college access and attainment, housing and raising a family. It found 20-somethings in 2005 were worse off than those of 1975 in every area except education, and even the trends for educational access are alarming.

Typical earnings (in constant dollars) for young men have declined over the course of a generation, falling 19 percent between 1975 and 2005 and falling 34% for young men without a college degree. Typical earnings for young women increased a mere 4 percent over the same period. Much of the decline came recently, between 2001 and 2005, despite increases in educational attainment.

The income figures, while bad, don't tell the whole story. There has also been a decline in benefits and job quality. In 2006, 34% of young adults 18-34 years old did not have health insurance coverage. Pension coverage has fallen from 36 percent in 1979 to 18.8 percent in 2004.

Increasing debt levels, both credit card and student loan debt, are handicapping young adults' ability to build wealth. The proportion of young adults with college and the amount of debt has skyrocketed. Although amounts vary by state, in 2006, 58% of students graduated debt that averaged $19,646 nationally. Households age 18 to 34 carrying education-related debt had median financial assets that were 28 percent lower than those households without such debt.

45% of young adults between the ages of 25 and 34 say they use credit cards for day to day living expenses, most likely a result of lower income, student loan debt and the high cost of housing. In 2004, 25-to 34-year olds averaged $4,358 in credit card debt—47 percent higher than it was for Baby Boomers who were in that age group in 1989. Compared to a generation ago, a higher percentage of young people are spending more than 30 percent of their income on rent (designated threshold of affordability). In 2005, 43 percent of 25-to 34-year olds spent more than one-third of their pre-tax income on rent, up from 18 percent in 1970.

"A Generation Apart: Expenditure Patterns of Young Single Adults: Two Recent Generations Compared.". The main source of data used in this article is the Federal government's Consumer Expenditure Survey (CE). The data has been collected periodically for decades, which makes it perfect for generational research. The complexity of the data makes conclusions about income difficult. But it does show clear evidence of changing demographics and spending patterns. There were fewer young adults in the population in 2004–05 than there were in 1984–85, and they were marrying later in life possibly due to financial stress. The report makes much of the quadrupling of tuition prices at a time when overall CPI merely doubled, making education more expensive as a proportion of earnings, or future earnings.

Over the period examined, the proportion of expenditures going to shelter and utilities increased (consistent with the report cited earlier) and the shares for food at home and for food away from home both decreased. The expenditure category showing the biggest decrease by far was travel. The percentage reporting any travel expenditures decreased sharply, from more than half (53 percent) to about one-third (35 percent). Travel as a proportion of total outlays decreased significantly from 5% to 3%.

There is much more here, and I urge anyone marketing to Millennials, particularly discretionary purchases, to take some time to review these reports. It gave me perspective on why the young people I talk to all think of themselves as 'poor'. The reality is maybe they are?

Three Reasons Gen Y Doesn't Get Twitter

I love Twitter, but, my 18-year old daughter still insists she doesn't "get it". She explained it to me yesterday this way: for her, Facebook functions as a general organizing tool, much as Outlook does for me. Facebook is her calendar, contact book, and primary messaging platform. Any communication gaps are filled by GoogleTalk, text messaging, and if all else fails, dialing. Twitter adds nothing meaningful to this mix -- especially since her friends don't use it. Twitter is a hard sell, and I have finally given up.

The data has consistently shown 18-24 year olds lagging in Twitter adoption. Earlier this year we did focus groups among Millennials on Social Media usage ("The Millennial View of Social Media: Why Should I Be Your Friend?". We were especially interested in talking to Twitter users - but they were hard to find. I suspect if we repeated the study today, they would be equally hard to find.

A CNN article by an intern, Sharon Vaknin, titled "Generation Y: We're Just Not That Into Twitter" provides another view. Vaknin agrees with my daughter that Twitter has nothing to add over Facebook, but suggests a second theory for the lack of interest. Picking up on the Theory of Millennial Narcissism, Vaknin says Twitter offers little opportunity for 'self-branding':

Twitter's microblogging platform is what many Gen Y's may describe as "like Facebook, but just the status update." What is the point of that? We like to consolidate, so Nemeth explains that he doesn't "want to join another community, just tell people what (he's) doing." We have everything we need on Facebook. Based on Twenge's theory, a good explanation of my generation's lag in joining the Twitter mania is that there isn't an obvious way to achieve a self-brand on Twitter.Participating on Twitter requires a fan base that knows why you are unique, special, and deserve attention. Fan base aside, the Web site's interface paves a short path for cyberstalking--there is nothing to find past a user's status.

For example, Sally went to a great party last weekend, but where are the photos? Who went with her? These features, which Gen Y's value so much, are missing. As much as I like to know what my friends are doing, updates on Twitter happen so fast there really isn't time to react. More importantly, my friends don't have time to react to my activities.

Largely as a result of the digital communication tools on which we were raised, a big part of my generation wants to know what the cyberworld thinks of us, and we want its inhabitants to pay attention to us. How can they do this if they're following 300 other people? For the Millennials to make the move, Twitter will have to find a way to integrate the self-branding features MySpace gave birth to and Facebook nurtured. Even if they're packaged in 140 characters or less.

I have a third theory for Millennial disinterest. Millennials aren't accustomed to making online friends. For years, parents warned kids and teens against talking to strangers online. The origins of Facebook were that unlike MySpace, you could only have one identity on Facebook and it required a .edu email address. That meant it was 'safer'. The very idea that I am sharing my email address and phone number with people I only know from their 'tweets' is a little creepy to those who were warned from an early age of online predators. How do you know they are who they say they are? Suddenly, it's okay to make friends with people you don't know?

I have no answer for this, and I am a little surprised at the personal risks I have taken. But in my defense, unlike email and online chat rooms, Twitter seems spam-free and offers an unusually civil level of discourse. After all you have control over who you follow and block others from following you (although I have had no real need to do this yet).

Whatever the reason, it is clear that until Twitter offers a compelling value proposition, it is not going to attract younger users. Long live Facebook!

Millennials: Moving Home is an Option

The conversation about Millennials lately has centered on work expectations, the high cost of turnover and "How to Keep Gen Y Workers on The Job". Gen Y's inclination to leave a job that doesn't meet expectations seems to be the impetus of much of the advice about managing Millennials at work (as opposed to, say, a desire to maximize their contribution, or create a genuinely Gen-Y friendly environment or handbook).

That Millennials have different expectations is widely assumed, although not really proven. A recent academic exploration of Gen Y attitudes by academics at the London School of Business ("Gen Y: The Reflexive Generation") concludes Millennials may not be so much different in what they want than older workers, but they are more likely to give voice to their expectations and their frustrations. Why? Because they were raised to expect more from their career than just money or advancement. They are looking for meaning and self-improvement and to speak out when their needs are not being met.

"Many of the elements we uncovered, such as being in charge of one’s own work, career and life, are probably applicable to many people. This generation might be more vocal in expressing their needs, but we should not forget that the period of time in which they grew up shaped this mindset.

One of the overriding impressions of the men and women of this generation is their frustration with performance management practices which are too slow, too bureaucratic and too hierarchical.

They place a great deal of emphasis on intellectual capital (the knowledge and insights they have), social capital (the depth, richness and extent of their networks) and emotional capital (the means by which they understand themselves and build self knowledge). For this generation the emphasis is on ‘work to learn’ rather than ‘work to live’.

I agree that the differences in expectations are shaped by their upbringing. But I would go further. Millennials also have the financial freedom to demand more of their jobs as a result of enjoying a parental safety net.

According to some reports, as many as 65% of recent college graduates are returning home. Unlike earlier generations, Millennials feel welcome to return home and moving home carries no stigma. For their part, parents are eager to (continue) to help their kids get a good start in life. According to a study by Vibrant.com, 37% of Boomer women have an adult child living with them and 44% are helping a child or grandchild financially.

Saving thousands of dollars a year in rent provides many with the option to take a unpaid internship, a volunteer position, or wait for a better job. Even those who have good jobs are deciding living at home is a reasonable option. A successful Chicago hairdresser I know recently moved back in with her parents in order to be able to afford health care. And another young employed worker plans to stay with his parents until he saves $30,000 to start his own business.

These are considered rational sacrifices, if they are sacrifices at all. After all, Millennials famously like their parents.

Fast forward 20 years and it's possible the tables could reverse! Boomer parents, who selflessly paid for advanced degrees and provided shelter in time of need, and who experienced significant savings depletion in 2008, may call on their adult children to return the favor. My guess is that Millennials will have no problem taking in Mom or Dad.

Observing Teen Media Use in its Natural Habitat

I have two Millennial-age kids, one in high school and another is a college student. This summer they exhibit the sleep habits of nocturnal wild animals. If they were dropped into Hong Kong tomorrow, they would experience no jet lag.

Technology knows no time zone and is hard to quit once you start. Combine entertainment with social connection and you have a sticky brew. My son dramatically removed the TV from his room during final exam week, but has yet to restore it. I now see why: he doesn't need it! His laptop functions as super-functional TV/DVD/ player with communication built in.

New research from OTX (and conversations with other parents) assures me my kids are fairly typical. Andy Pipes, in blog post titled "Technology, Kids and Telly", summarized the OTX findings on 12-24 year-olds like this:

* They personally own 8 devices (including MP3 player, PC, TV, DVD player, mobile phone, stereo, games console, and digital camera)

* They frequently conduct over 5 activities whilst watching TV

* 25% of them agree that “I’d rather stay at home than go on a holiday with no internet or phone access”

* A quarter of young people interviewed text or IM (instant message) friends they are physically with at the time

* They have on average 123 friends on their social network spaces

* And the first thing the majority of them do when they get home is turn on their PC

Although the research is from London, all of these findings ring true with my experience, including the points about vacation and texting friends sitting next to you. According to the OTX report, youth’s obsession with technology is less about the technology and more connection and communication.

"Young people’s immersion in these devices and the time spent on them is not due to an obsession with the technology per se, but largely due to the gadgets’ ability to facilitate communication and to enhance young people’s enjoyment of traditional pursuits. For most, the focus of their passion is not so much the device itself, but more about how it can help them connect, relax or have fun. The technology itself is “invisible” to the young consumer.

How is all this 'communication' affecting offline relationships with friends and family? According to the Annenberg research (reported this week by AP) Internet time is more likely to cut into family time than time with friends."

In 2000, when the center began its annual surveys on Americans and the Internet, only 11 percent of respondents said that family members under 18 were spending too much time online. By 2008, that grew to 28 percent....In the first half of the decade, people reported spending an average of 26 hours per month with their families. By 2008, however, that shared time had dropped by more than 30 percent, to about 18 hours."

The OTX research aligns with this finding. Here is Andy Pipes again:

>"These activities seem to be making up for not spending as much physical time with their friends as they’d like - which seems to be most of the time. On the weekends, when typical young adults have the most free time, they are still spending more time hanging out with their mates and watching television than any other activity - the difference is that this generation tends to be engaging with their connected devices a lot more whilst doing those cherished activities."

I suppose i can take some comfort in that. Meanwhile, I don't miss hearing the refrain of summers past: "Mom, I'm bored. There's nothing to do!"

Class of 2009: An Unscientific Profile

Journalism met ethnographic market research this week in an article in New York magazine, "Class of 2009". In four short, highly graphic pages, the article reports the findings of a survey of 200 college students and young adults.

The sample, while unabashedly unscientific, represents a range of New York schools, including NYU, Brooklyn College, the NYPD Police Academy, Wharton, Yale, and even Friends Seminary. The survey questions show a lot of imagination ('what does 'hooking up' mean to you?', 'what do your parents not understand about you?'). The result is a provocative portrait of Gen Y circa 2009.

The main finding according to the author, Emily Nussbaum, confirms that Gen Y exhibits a surprising degree of optimism. Most of those surveyed think the recession will not last more than two years, and 91% expect to be better off in five years -- even though only 58% have a job lined up post graduation.

"Nonetheless, the results of this imperfect survey were revealing. We were startled by the fact that, circumstances be damned, we found very little bitterness at all—caution, yes; worry too—but judging from the responses to our questions, this is a reflexively optimistic cadre of graduates, feeling, if anything, existentially freed up by this era of radical change. They’re nervous about the job market but figure it’ll sort itself out. They describe their parents with shocking regularity as their “best friends.” They’ve lived online for so long it’s a default setting, one they believe lends them a more global-minded perspective than that of their elders. Their tone overall was more bemused than outraged: “I’m a mixture of excited and nervous for the future,” says Forrest Petterson, a graduating senior at Friends Seminary. “But there’s no point in getting upset, because it’s not the end of the world.”"

I found the questions about Millennials attitudes toward their parents especially creative and revealing. We know that Millennials admire their moms, move back to a welcoming home when necessary and overall enjoy their parent's company. But this is the first data on how much they see themselves as like their parents. 86% say they share their parent's political views and 43% say they are 'as religious' or 'more' religious than their parents. Other highlights:

49% say they are less frugal than their parents

52% 'often' discuss money with their parents

48% 'often' discuss politics with their parents

6% 'often' discuss sex with their parents (some things apparently don't change!)

Is Your Brand Millennial-Ready?

I am often challenged to justify my opinion that Millennials need to be addressed as a unique target.

My first response is to point out just how many of them there are. As a result of an 'echo boom' in births that began in the late 70's, by 2008 there were over 58 million young adults 21+. (see chart). Fast forward five years and there will be 3.5 million more, a 6% increase. That's 61.5 million consumers in their prime earning and spending years. At the same time, the number of people 35-54 is projected to decline by 2 million.

Many industries -- technology, education, food, wine, beer and spirits -- have felt the impact of Millennials for several years. Looking ahead, we anticipate financial services, travel, and home goods/fashions to be next. Marketers in these categories often doubt whether Millennials are really all that different, or will require significant adjustments in their value proposition or marketing approach. Perhaps they are right. But what is the basis for thinking that the status quo will remain either status or quo? Better to expect a "Black Swan" than to be surprised.

As you consider whether your brand is "Gen Y-Ready", here are five questions to consider:

1. Impact: How important are 21-34 year olds to my category now? Five years from now?

2. Wants & Needs: What is different about this generation's values or upbringing that could impact their decisions about my category? About brands?

3. Influencers: Who are the individuals or communities that influence millennial opinions in my category? Do we have ways to monitor their opinions?

4. Internal Audience: What do Millennials in our organization say about our value proposition? About the best way to reach people like them?

5. Benchmarks: Which brands in other categories are succeeding with Millennials? What can we learn from them?

If you find it difficult to answer these questions, I strongly urge you to get prepared. The Millennials Are Coming!