Tough Sells: Anti-Tobacco and Responsible Drinking

Good news for Millennial marketers! Advertising works! A slew of new studies document both these statements are true:

1) Tobacco advertising and promotion cause young people to smoke

2) Mass media campaigns are effective at reducing smoking among young people, especially when combined with other tobacco control strategies.

Two new studies in the American Journal of Preventative Medicine (Feb 9, 2009), conclude that the National Truth Campaign to Prevent Youth Smoking has been highly effective cost efficient in reducing initiation of smoking among teens. One study found that truth(R) was directly responsible for keeping 450,000 teens from starting to smoke during its first four years, while a second study found that the campaign not only paid for itself in its first two years, but also saved between $1.9 billion and $5.4 billion in health care costs. Impressive.

Unfortunately, there is equally impressive evidence that the better-funded efforts of tobacco marketers are even more effective and cost efficient. New research by the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) (Feb 13, 2009) found the three most heavily advertised cigarette brands - Marlboro, Newport and Camel - were preferred by 78.2 percent of middle school smokers and 86.5 percent of high school smokers. Marlboro is preferred by more high school smokers, 52.3 percent, than all other brands combined.

What's true of tobacco also appears to apply to underage drinking. Despite clever drink responsibly campaigns (I especially like the Captain Morgan pizza delivery ad), better funded youth-oriented alcohol advertising may be contributing to an epidemic of binge drinking on college campuses. The National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism estimates that 1,700 college students between ages 18 and 24 die of alcohol-related causes each year, while about 600,000 suffer from alcohol-related injuries. Nearly 25 percent of all college students report academic consequences of drinking, including missing class, falling behind, doing poorly on exams or papers and receiving lower grades overall. (Colleges Crack Down on Binge Drinking).

There is plenty of evidence that college culture on many campuses now celebrates drinking to get drunk. The "official" Motown/Asher Roth "I Love College" music video on YouTube has over half a million views without counting the many unofficial versions. On Sunday night, 60 Minutes interviewed college students about drinking games and attitudes toward drinking. This short clip captures the matter of fact way students accept that drinking to get drunk = social life on campus today. (More 60 Minutes clips and transcript.)

The moral for Millennial marketers? Advertise responsibly!

Twitter & Bourbon: What do they have in common?

Multiple choice question: Who is Evan Williams?

a) the name of Twitter's CEO

b) the name of a fast-growing 120-year old bourbon brand

c) inventor of the term 'blog'

d) all of the above.

Answer: d.

Let's start with bourbon. According to Mintel (2005), overall incidence of bourbon drinking is 11%, but it peaks among 21-24 year olds (16%). Evan Williams is the 5th most popular brand of bourbon among 21-24 year olds. By far the most popular is Jack Daniels (87% incidence among 21-24 year olds),87%). While whiskey overall has barely grown since 2001, bourbon is growing fast. Maker's Mark was up 8% in 2007, and Wild Turkey and Evan Williams each grew 5%. (USA Today, “Bourbon Producers see Amber Colored Future”, July 3, 2008) Unlike most distilled spirits, bourbon is more than twice as likely to be drunk by guys, so it's a fair assumption that young men are driving the trend. Why bourbon? I have no idea, really, but it may have to do with overall shift to more sophisticated tastes among Millennials. Beer is down, wine is up.

Now for the man. Evan Williams, 36, is CEO of Twitter and, according to Wikipedia, coined the word 'blogging'. In fact, he invented Blogger and sold it to Google. (His profile says Evan has been on blogger since August 1999 and has had more than 226,000 views.) He describes himself as 'an American entrepreneur, originally a farm boy from Nebraska, who's been very lucky in business.'

In addition to rapid growth rates and the uncanny coincidence of the name 'Evan Williams', Twitter and bourbon may have even more in common..

As bourbon is dwarfed by beer, wine and vodka, Twitter remains tiny relative to Facebook. Hubspot puts Twitter usage at 4-5 million users, about 30% of which are 'new or unengaged'. For perspective, Facebook has over 140 million users, and a very high level of engagement. As bourbon is unlikely to approach the popularity of beer, Twitter is probably never going to catch up to Facebook as a social medium. Twitter sees between five and ten thousand new accounts opened each day, far below Facebook's 600k daily registrations and 140 million active users. "If Facebook stopped growing right now and Twitter's numbers were at the upper end of Hubspot's estimates (10k per day) - it would take 36 years for Twitter to catch up."

I confess I prefer beer to bourbon. I also prefer Facebook to Twitter. I find Twitter hard to understand, it has its own rules, syntax and rhythms. It's hard to dabble, with much of its power coming from frequency. I also find it a challenge to find something I think my 100 or so followers, mostly strangers, would find interesting to read. In contrast, my Facebook page is not as demanding and I know my friends on Facebook really are interested in what I'm doing. I also haven't seen Millennials embrace Twitter, at least not yet. Like bourbon, Twitter may prove to be a 'step up' taste.

Millennial Spirits: Make Mine Sophisticated

My Millennial friends tell me they are more likely these days to open a bottle of wine with friends than a six pack of beer. The data suggests they are right on trend. Overall, sales gains for wine and spirits are outpacing beer. And within the beer category, growth in imports and microbrews is outpacing regular beer. This trend, like so many, appears to reflect a growing sophistication in the tastes of young drinkers.

In June, Mintel released two new reports, one on drinking at home and another on drinking away from home. Both reports show similar trends by age: young people are increasingly opting for wine and vodka over beer. 32% of 21-25 year olds say they are 'drinking more liquor/spirits than last year'. The average number of microbrewed beers drunk by 21-24 year old microbrew drinkers increased from 3.0 in 2005 to 3.8 in 2007. And a full 38% of 21-24 year old drinkers say vodka is their top spirits choice in a restaurant or bar.

Diageo, a close watcher of Millennial trends, is among the first to really capitalize on the sophisticated appeal of vodka. Today, a new campaign is breaking for their new ultra premium vodka, Ciroq. Here's what Mediapost says about the new campaign, called "The Art of Celebration" featuring Sean "Diddy" Combs:

"Shot in black and white at one of Sinatra's former California homes, the 15- and 30-second commercials depict Combs as a high-spirited host amidst a chic crowd during an impromptu private house party. Combs is serving Cîroc, one of the world's only vodkas made from grapes, while engaging with his modern-day "Rat Pack" entourage. Sinatra, along with Dean Martin, Peter Lawford, Joey Bishop and Sammy Davis Jr., were the original packers. In the spots, Combs mingles, dances and jokes during the intimate party, before finally stealing a private moment to gaze into the night as the crowd enjoys a fun-filled evening inside. The spot represents a continuation of the brand's commitment to defining "sophisticated celebration"--a concept Combs embodies and cultivates both personally and professionally as a lifestyle and entertainment icon. During the holiday season, the campaign will evolve to focus on safety."

The combination of high style, celebrity and music is likely to appeal to Millennials, who are most likely less interested in 'luxury' than in what wine Fat Bastard calls 'Livin' Large'. As we have noted before, Millennials do not think of themselves as well-off, despite their relatively high disposable incomes. They do, however, see themselves as discerning consumers who value authenticity and quality. This campaign seems to hit the mark in both respects.