The Pleasures and Perils of Millennial Trendspotting

Now that we are finally done hearing reviews of the top TEN younameits of 2008, we are enduring endless top TEN predictions for 2009. Given the shocks of 2008, wouldn't it be great to go into this year with some clue as to what might happen? There seem to be two approaches to seeing into the future. One is to tap 'experts'. However, expert predictions are notoriously unreliable, as this video from 1930 speculating on fashions of the year 2000 reminds us. (It's interesting to note, however, that many of these predictions are not that far off the mark -- men do carry a lot of gadgets and women's 2009 fashions do feature the 'transparent' look).

The other approach to future-sight is to observe what 'trendsetters' are doing. After all, every trend has to start somewhere. Something those who prize 'newness' for newness' sake is likely to go mainstream. Of course, there are pitfalls here as well. Who exactly is a trendsetter? And which of their quirky choices will cross over to the rest of us?

According to Outlaw Consulting, there are two ways to approach trendsettter research. One is to identify "attitudinal leaders", individuals with 'broadly aspirational lifestyles'. Often these individuals can articulate the shifting values of their generation and provide ideas about larger societal trends. The other way is to seek out "category leaders", individuals who are highly involved and ahead in one particular category, such as fashion, media, music, night life or alcohol. Within each category, there are degrees of 'forwardness' from cutting edge 'initiators' to slightly less forward 'influencers'. While a cutting-edge fashion initiator makes her own music and clothes, and reads underground blogs created by his friends, the influencer, may be just one step ahead of the mainstream buying the latest styles in the mall, only to be copied by all of her friends.

Knowing what trendsetters are doing is only the first step. The second step is determining which of their choices, tastes and interests will go mainstream. This requires research among early adopters or even late adopters, with a keen ear for 'underlying motives' that may lead these mainstream consumers to adopt the more forward trend. Here is how Barbara Bylenga at Outlaw Consulting describes it:

The key to accurate prediction is understanding the mainstream’s barriers: do they reject the trend because of a soft barrier that could weaken over time? (Soft barrier example: “I don’t like to spend a lot on things like that.”) Or is the barrier deeply ingrained in their identity, suggesting they will never absorb the trend? (Hard barrier example: “Nobody will respect me if I do that.”) ... The process works because it’s thorough and intelligent, rooted in essential truths about human behavior.

Perhaps the 1930's fashion experts were on to something after all. If human motivations remain constant, transparent women's fashions and dedicated pockets for men's gadgets may still be with us in 2050.

What Are the Cool Kids Doing Online?

Millennials spend 12-14 hours a week online searching for information, watching video, updating their profiles and messaging their friends. They are confident "neti-zens" who have never known a time when up-to-date info about friends, grades, tonight's biology homework, favorite political candidates and the latest SNL episode wasn't instantly and freely available. It's worth understanding what they like online now, because Millennial's online tastes are very influential. According to Deloitte's 2007 State of the Media Democracy Survey, word of mouth is the most common reason for Millennials to visit a website. When they find a particular television show or website that they enjoy, they tell an average of 18 people, compared with only 10 people for all age groups. So what online brands are hot with Millennials today? New research from Outlaw Consulting among 100 hand selected Gen Y Trendsetters sheds some light. The biggest surprise here is that there are no real surprises here. Facebook is number one, even among trendsetters, who at the beginning were vaguely uncomfortable doing something so, well, popular. It just seemed so vain. That apparently has changed however, due to the ubiquity and ease of use.

>"Facebook has become more of a fact of life, a way to communicate and schedule events—consider it this generation’s version of Microsoft Outlook, but with an emotional side. “There is an entire army of friends who I don’t see regularly but still care about. It means a lot to automatically be able to see their photos from time to time, and keep abreast of who’s where. Facebook provides a warm blanket for me. It makes me feel more connected, less alienated.”

In our research with recent college graduates, we learned Facebook has become essential for remaining in touch with newly scattered friends. While the Facebook habit is strongest among those who actually used it in college (those who graduated less than 4 years ago), we expect the trend to continue.

Other popular trendsetter sites pose similar paradoxes. Ironically, trendsetters want to tap into the 'wisdom of crowds' available, where else, on EBay, Yelp, Wikipedia, Craigslist.

“There are tons of different opinions on there, but you can sift through and get a feel for the truth. I don’t know what I did before Yelp.” “Whenever I have an item in mind, I check eBay. It standardizes the pricing. If you want to know what the public thinks an item is worth, eBay will tell you.Gen Y trendsetters will gladly sacrifice 100% accuracy for direct access to the public’s version of reality, whatever it may be. They believe they know when to trust sites, and when to seek another source. In the meantime, they credit these sites with doing no less than changing their lives. The model of the open platform giving voice to a crowd will be close to their hearts as this generation comes to power.

The rest of the list is equally unsurprising. CNN, NYT, Netflix, Amazon, YouTube, Flickr and Pandora round out the list. Where are the obscure, the trendy, the not on the map ideas? Perhaps that is the big finding. The Internet, arbiter of every personal whim and taste, may be more mass than we even suspected.

Research Insights: Brands that Connect With Millennials

Understanding how and why brands connect with Gen Y is critical to Millennial marketing, but research on the subject can be hard to come by. Primary brand research is often closely guarded. That makes figuring out what Millennials want now and, more important, will want in the future a challenge for those without money to spend on getting out and talking to them. Here are three great, free resources on Millennial brands:

1. Outlaw Consulting Trend Reports: Outlaw specializes in researching Millennial trendsetters. They have been doing this longer than anyone I know and provide great content on their site in the form of their in-depth newsletters. These newsletters are full blown reports. Last year, they profiled the top 15 brands.

2. Businessweek recently shared their list of brands with global girl appeal ("How Brands Become Girl Approved", 9.18.08) as part of an overall survey of global brands. There were the usual suspects: Coca-Cola, Apple, Starbucks, and Google. But there are also a few surprises -- Ford, Citi, H&M, Motorola. Actually, I am not so sure about the surprises and neither are they. But what I especially liked was the slide show, the synopsis of what each brand means to girls and suggestions for what it could mean.

3. Graham Brown also has a long record of understanding youth culture, especially mobile marketing to youth. His blog, mobileyouth.org contains a wealth of data and links to slide presentation on youth culture and mobile marketing. For a sample, check out this presentation to Vodaphone on slideshare:

Mobile Youth Presentation to Vodafone by MobileYouth.org featuring trust, loyalty, net promoter score

View SlideShare presentation or Upload your own. (tags: mobile marketing)

I especially value the links to four slideshare presentations on the Gen Y appeal of four specific brands: Scion, Jones, EA games and Red Bull. He describes these as 'brands with uncommon sense'. Here is the Red Bull presentation.

326475 - Red Bull, "It's Not A Drink, It's a Lifestyle".

View SlideShare presentation or Upload your own. (tags: yagerbombs nightclub)