TV vs. Video: What do the Numbers Mean?

Nielsen reported monthly hours of viewing for all age groups (see below) in May 2008 in it's "Third Screen Report". You'd have to be blind not to notice the age differences. Based on this and other TV viewing reports, I have a theory about what is happening to TV viewership among Millennials. It goes like this:

1. Appointment-style primetime TV viewing habits are pretty much dead, even for 'destination shows'. According to Millward Brown, nearly half of Millennials (45%) use a DVR 'regularly' or 'fairly often' and another 25% say they are considering buying one in the next year. The Heroes season opener derived 33% of its viewership from time shifted viewing.

2. Primetime viewing is largely social. According to Knowledge Network, 39% of Millennials watch primetime outside of their own home at least once a week, compared to just 11% of young boomers and 21% of Gen X'ers. I presume outside of home means other people's homes, a gym, bar or other social gathering place. 55% watch primetime with other people in the room, vs. 41% for young boomers. This suggests other technologies have a stronger claim on Millennials' 'alone' viewing time than primetime TV, another signal (pun intended) that TV is becoming marginalized for 'right now' viewing.

3. Internet video is becoming a reasonable alternative to TV for personal viewing. Over one quarter (27%) of Millennials go to websites to watch video vs. only 9% of boomers (Millward Brown). According to Nielsen, 18-34 year olds spend an average of 3-4 hours a month watching Internet video. My college-age daughter loves Masterpiece Theatre, but does not feel compelled to watch the latest episode at 9:00 on Sunday night when she can view it anytime on the web. My high school age son is as likely to watch a movie he downloaded to his laptop as TV or a DVD. I can't recall the last time he purchased a DVD. He is very interested in Apple's iTV. (Is that the next 'must have' Christmas item?)

4. The so-called 'third screen', mobile video, may move to second place soon. Nielsen reported that as of May 2008, 18-34 year olds with video enabled phones viewed video this way 3-4 hours a month, a figure similar to that of video on the Internet. Younger people with video enabled phones watched even more.

While the changes now are mostly confined to Millennials and their younger siblings, you only have to think of the explosion in text messaging to know it won't be long before their parents follow. If these patterns hold, we are moving toward a model where the venue is less important than the content. Soon, it will all be simply 'video entertainment', with viewing devices presenting alternative formats for watching the same stuff. Each format will offer different advantages in the user experience, but the same content. In that world, does it even matter that Heroes and SNL are on NBC? From a branding standpoint, channels simply won't matter. It will all simply be 'video'.

Heroes: The Ultimate Millennial Fantasy?

I have already nominated several fictional characters as the ultimate Millennial persona: Andy Sachs, heroine of Devil Wears Prada, Harry Potter and his friends, the ensemble cast of Hamlet2. The common theme is the ability of seemingly ordinary kids to conjure up hidden talents or even hidden powers to accomplish something very difficult, usually beyond the capabilities of adults. Now we have NBC's smash hit, Heroes, which seems to fully capture the essence of this 'wait til you see the real me' fantasy in full. Here is how the Heroes wiki site describes two of the show's key characters:

Claire Bennet is a high school student formerly of Odessa, TX where she used to be a cheerleader. She lives with her adoptive family in Costa Verde, CA. Claire discovers she has the ability to heal seemingly any wound, nearly instantaneously.

Peter Petrelli worked as a common hospice nurse while living in New York City. Peter appeared to his family as a witless dreamer, who believed he had a greater place in life than just saving one life at a time. He discovered he was an evolved human who had the ability to absorb and use the powers of other evolved humans. Peter has since decided to use his abilities to save the world.

The show is wildly popular among Millennials, and given Millennials' passion for making a difference in the world, it's easy to see why the show is so appealing. Marketers would do well to tap into this fantasy, with products that help Millennials be more the person they know they were meant to be, and make a greater impact for good. NBC is leveraging this insight well, with a create your own hero contest and animated online series. Superpowers for ordinary mortals of course is not a new theme. but what makes Potter nd Heroes different from, say Superman, is the unique generational angle. It's not just about having unique talents, it's about being YOUNG and having unique talents. That is what makes these characters remarkable in their worlds and appealing in the world of Millennails.