Will Millennials Stop Spending?

In a word, no. Or let me modify that, I don't think so. Millennials, like everyone, are feeling the pinch of a shrinking economy and collapsing financial markets. Yet there are indications Millennials may not be pulling back to the same degree as everyone else. Individually, none of these indications would be definitive. Together, they suggest Millennials will keep spending:

Our focus group research last week suggests they are still interested in imported beer.

An Ad Age-commissioned survey (1.19.09) shows younger coffee drinkers are the least likely to report they are cutting back on expensive lattes. "Those who have scaled back the most since the beginning of the year...are consumers 45 to 54, with fully half (50.4%) saying they have "cut back a lot" on fancy or expensive takeout coffee. That was followed by consumers 35 to 44 (37.5%) and 25 to 34 (33.3%)."

This week BIGresearch predicted Millennial-favorite retailers Aeropostale, Hot Topic and Buckle "are almost certain to see an increase" in sales in 2009, based on indications from their survey panel. (Wal-mart and Fred's were the only other retailers in this category.)

What's going on? My guess is that Millennials are already accustomed to thinking of themselves as cash strapped, so the crisis is unlikely to bring any real change in behavior. Every college student I know is convinced he is 'poor'. Recent grads feel burdened by (very real) college debt and young marrieds/parents are chronically short of cash. This is good news for Millennial marketers who have long understood that 'luxury' is not a word designed to appeal to the Millennial mindset. Millennials always think of themselves as 'value' shoppers, even as they opt for expensive brand-name apparel and electronics. Apple will continue to thrive, despite the fact that a $649 Dell provides the same functionality as a MacBook at twice the price.

Judy Hopelain, describes in her blog, Retail Hits and Misses, her experience shopping for a formal dress with her 16-year old daughter. I think it perfectly captures the Millennial mindset, spend carefully, but spend!

There were deals to be had. We started out at Bloomingdale’s and after trying on a dozen or so dresses, found one by French Connection she loved but was a size too small, and had them hold 3 others while we went to look elsewhere. She was concerned that someone else would show up in the BCBG dress she put on hold. A group of 15 girls all agreed to post pictures of their dresses on Facebook to prevent duplicates (GREAT IDEA!), but the whole school is not part of the plan, so she couldn’t be sure. BCBG seems to be the favorite of high school juniors and seniors, and apparently two girls wore the same BCBG dress last year. The horror! So, we worked our way through the mall. The favorite dress on hold at Bloomies was on sale at the BCBG boutique for 30% off – and the store was filled with girls from our high school. So, despite the discount, which put the dress closer to the price I had in mind, the dress was off the list. The whole brand was out. We ended up finding a totally unique dress in a London boutique called Reiss – no way would anyone else have that dress. It was marked down 75%, which put the dress comfortably in our price range. So, we bought it, and a great looking pair of sandals to go with. Later, at home she went online and found her size in one of the dresses she’d tried on at Bloomingdale’s that was a size too small at LolaBoutique.com. What to do? Like lots of people, we are cutting back and watching our spending. She came up with the plan – return the sandals since she realized she already had shoes to go with either dress. Return the dress to Reiss. And since the dress online was still slightly over the price I had in mind, have her pay the difference. Oh, and let her run around and handle the returns herself.

What's Hot? The Family Guy!

Moderator: Anything else help you get 'away' from it all?

Kevin: when im stressed, I usually grab a beer and watch some family guy dvds...thats the only way i can be happy again lol

Matt B: I second the family guy dvds :)

Gregg C: Family Guy is a great stress-reliever

James: ps3, and yes to The Family Guy.

This exchange happened yesterday in an online focus group about beer. All of these guys are 25-29 years old, young professionals, some married, some not. Why has Family Guy become the 'escape' of choice?

Upon investigation, I became aware of how what I have been missing. The Family Guy is a cultural phenomenon.

There are six boxed DVD sets, one for each season. The Family Guy has sold over 5 million combined DVD units, making it the fourth-largest TV series seller ever.

The Family Guy series won 3 Primetime Emmys. IMDB.com lists another 7 wins & 26 nominations. . It has set viewership records on Fox's Adult Swim block.

A Facebook application with over 55,000 subscribers.

There was a 'live' show at Carnegie Hall in November 2008.

There are several Youtube clips with 5-8 million views.

After watching a few (Puke-a-Thon, Stewie Beats Brian, Electric Man), I am baffled. These are not only not funny to me, I don't see how they could be funny to anyone else either. Perhaps that is the point? If I liked them, perhaps Millennial Men would not? Oh, we also did a focus group among 25-29 year old Millennial Women; The Family Guy never came up.

The Facebook Juggernaut

This week I lost another kid to Facebook. Like most Millennials, my 18-year old daughter has been addicted for years, but my son, who just turned 15, had so far found it uncompelling. No longer. This week, he went from just a handful of friends to over 140 friends. Like his sister, he now spends hours uploading photos, posting remarks on friends' walls and making new connections.

According to Gallup poll data, there are dramatic differences in amount of time spent on the internet by age group. Those spending at least one hour a day drops steadily with each successive age group, from 62% for Millennials to 24% for their grandparents. (See chart) If my kids are any indication, the 'Facebook Effect' is a large part of the difference. (My dad likes his computer, but doesn't know what else to do once he's done with email).

According to Nick Burcher, who follows Facebook and other social media site usage, Facebook's U.S. user base grew from 27.8 million users in July to 42.0 million in December, a 51% jump. Internationally, its user base grew even faster. Altogether, Facebook added an eyepopping total of 47 million new users in the last 6 months of 2008. The largest non-US user bases are in the English speaking Canada and UK. (For more on international use of Facebook relative to Twitter, see Brendan Mitchell's Jan 11 blog post.)

There is no doubt that Facebook dominates the lives of many Millennials, but whether this pattern will continue indefinitely is still up for debate. In our research among young adults we are starting to hear some reservations about Facebook as the end all be all social network application. While Twitter is not really registering yet among young professionals we talk with, we are hearing that they think of Linked In for professional use, and fear that their Facebook profiles may come to haunt them as they advance in their lives and careers.

The Pleasures and Perils of Millennial Trendspotting

Now that we are finally done hearing reviews of the top TEN younameits of 2008, we are enduring endless top TEN predictions for 2009. Given the shocks of 2008, wouldn't it be great to go into this year with some clue as to what might happen? There seem to be two approaches to seeing into the future. One is to tap 'experts'. However, expert predictions are notoriously unreliable, as this video from 1930 speculating on fashions of the year 2000 reminds us. (It's interesting to note, however, that many of these predictions are not that far off the mark -- men do carry a lot of gadgets and women's 2009 fashions do feature the 'transparent' look).

The other approach to future-sight is to observe what 'trendsetters' are doing. After all, every trend has to start somewhere. Something those who prize 'newness' for newness' sake is likely to go mainstream. Of course, there are pitfalls here as well. Who exactly is a trendsetter? And which of their quirky choices will cross over to the rest of us?

According to Outlaw Consulting, there are two ways to approach trendsettter research. One is to identify "attitudinal leaders", individuals with 'broadly aspirational lifestyles'. Often these individuals can articulate the shifting values of their generation and provide ideas about larger societal trends. The other way is to seek out "category leaders", individuals who are highly involved and ahead in one particular category, such as fashion, media, music, night life or alcohol. Within each category, there are degrees of 'forwardness' from cutting edge 'initiators' to slightly less forward 'influencers'. While a cutting-edge fashion initiator makes her own music and clothes, and reads underground blogs created by his friends, the influencer, may be just one step ahead of the mainstream buying the latest styles in the mall, only to be copied by all of her friends.

Knowing what trendsetters are doing is only the first step. The second step is determining which of their choices, tastes and interests will go mainstream. This requires research among early adopters or even late adopters, with a keen ear for 'underlying motives' that may lead these mainstream consumers to adopt the more forward trend. Here is how Barbara Bylenga at Outlaw Consulting describes it:

The key to accurate prediction is understanding the mainstream’s barriers: do they reject the trend because of a soft barrier that could weaken over time? (Soft barrier example: “I don’t like to spend a lot on things like that.”) Or is the barrier deeply ingrained in their identity, suggesting they will never absorb the trend? (Hard barrier example: “Nobody will respect me if I do that.”) ... The process works because it’s thorough and intelligent, rooted in essential truths about human behavior.

Perhaps the 1930's fashion experts were on to something after all. If human motivations remain constant, transparent women's fashions and dedicated pockets for men's gadgets may still be with us in 2050.

Plays Well With Others: Linking Millennials with Bands and their Causes

Ryan Davis and his friends are leveraging Millennials' love of music with their desire to support great causes. The result? Plays Well With Others, a site that calls attention to bands that support great causes. According to Davis,

"We feel that there is an unprecedented desire among young people right now to change the world for the better, and may not know about all the organizations that they can join. We want to help connect those fans to the organizations and causes that bands are involved with, and help build awareness about new bands and the causes that they support."

Plays Well With Others designs and publicizes events that call attention to bands and the social causes those bands support. The next big event is Feb 13, to raise awareness about an organization called Not For Sale that fights human trafficking. Here is the result of a short interview with Ryan earlier this year:

How did you get started? Who is involved and how did you first get the idea for Plays Well With Others?

Davis: It began with a few individuals that work in the music industry seeing how many socially aware causes had a presence at shows and festivals, and wanting to find a way to extend that experience with those causes to beyond just the show. We wanted to take that interaction that the fans had with that cause and that band and extend it to their day-to-day lives. We began working on what that would mean and how it would look, and a few weeks later www.doyouplaywell.com went up. Right now we are working in all aspects, such as event production, artistic involvement, even a film team to help us build content for bands that are involved with us and to help tell the stories of the causes that we're working with.

What kind of response are you experiencing?

Davis: The response has truly been overwhelming, both from the organizational side and from the bands wanting to get involved. As soon as we've explained the concept of what we're trying to do everyone has been very eager to get involved.

How do people learn about your site?

Davis: We've been marketing through the usual avenues of Facebook and Myspace, and also reaching out through music blogs and trend websites. We want to reach young people where they are already, and that's going to be in the online music community. We have a really young group of people involved with this project, and we're working with causes and music that we genuinely believe in. I think that comes across when we're appealing to people, millennial have grown up with online marketing and can tell when something is forced. We are giving them a real and genuine way that they can get involved in areas that they care about, whether it's with the homeless, feeding the hungry, or with a group like Not For Sale.

One of your goals is to "Create an ongoing involvement with people and those bands/causes through both online marketing and real world experiences." What is your plan for getting marketers involved with Do You Play Well?

Davis: We offer a way for both bands and causes to build their communities, without asking for anything in return. Our only goal with this organization is to connect people to music and causes that they care about, in return we can give them publicity, content, and a voice to get their message out to people that might not hear it otherwise. We're talking about the generation that is more plugged in and more aware of the world around them than any before, a generation that wants to find out about ways to better the world. We want to give them all the tools that they need in order to be as effective at doing that as possible.

What's next? What plans do you have for the site?

Davis:We're currently discussing a redesign of it that would allow forums for users to connect to each other in their own communities and join their efforts on new projects, as well as building a space on the site that would allow bands to interact with people that are in the music industry and with organizations that are looking for ways to get more involved in the music community. We want the website to be really the starting point for users to begin projects that carry over into the real world. We feel that this generation can really change the world for the better, and we want to do everything that we can to help.

How Marketers Can Connect With Millennials

I am frequently asked to comment on how Millennials view their lives. To many 'older' people, Millennial lives seem 'complicated'. All those gadgets! The constant connection and 24/7 activity looks exhausting. Aren't they overwhelmed?

After hundreds of online and face-to-face interviews with college students and young professionals over the past six months, I can confidently say that 'complicated' is not how Millennials describe themselves.

Gen Y says their biggest challenge is 'busy-ness', the sheer volume of things they want and need to do. There simply isn't enough time to do it all. As a result, they see their lives as 'hectic', 'exciting', 'dynamic' and 'fun'. However, busy-ness also is the main barrier to achieving things that are really important to them, like staying in touch with old friends, making new friends and finding time to lead a 'balanced' life. Here is a sample of how they think of their lives and challenges:

Moderator: Now tell us what 3 words best describe your life right now..I know this might sound weird - but just say whatever comes to mind!

Jessica S: hectic, exciting, perfect Jason J: Dynamic, Fun, Anxious Doug: Fun, Non-Stop and Dynamic Lindsay J: busy, uncertain, overwhelming Alex S: interesting, action-packed, dynamic where action-packed = busy John C: Transition, Stress, Excitement Mary A: exciting, fun,hard Justin D: Margarine, content, excited. Katie H: busy, fun, happy Mike G: Three words that describe my life: dynamic, in-flux and wandering.

Moderator: a lot of you said "busy" - what are you mostly busy with?

Lindsay J: work, social, personal (moving) Jessica S: everything - work is busy and family life is busy - that makes for a feeling of going non-stop - I"m also moving and getting married Doug: Busy would entail for me...work (travel, responsibilities) and social life

Moderator: a lot of you said "exciting" - what makes your life exciting?

Mary A: new experiences everyday Katie H: constantly running around John C: just having a lot of fun and not sure what is coming next but it all is pretty fun and new.

Moderator: what makes your life hard or stressful?

Katie H: work and personal, wanting and trying to be in too many places all the time Mary A: meeting new people at both places and making connections John C: life is stressful because of trying to balance success at work with having a personal life. Work is also stressful because it seems to never end.

While finding time and achieving 'balance' is their biggest challenge, Millennials tell us they experience three other sources of stress:

1. Creating Meaning. Millennials yearn to make a difference. Many find it hard to do this in their work lives, so they search for ways to make a difference outside of work through volunteer work.

2. Making New Friends. Surprisingly, many post-college age Millennials say it is tough to meet new people and form meaningful friendships.

3. Meeting (High) Personal Expectations: Millennials are their own harshest critics. They are accustomed to achieving their goals, and often feel discouraged with their jobs when they don't get the responsibility or career progress they think they are capable of.

Marketers who demonstrate an understanding and sympathy for these stressors will find it easier to engage Millennials. Brands that help them ease or resolve their challenges will earn customers for life.

Millennials: The Power of Positive Thinking

Norman Vincent Peale should have lived to see it. In the midst of a potential depression, optimism is bustin' out all over. First Pepsi. Now primetime TV.

In an article titled "The Think-Positive Gambit", the WSJ (1.2.08) describes the shows in development for 2009 as 'feel good' shows designed to showcase uplifting themes and laughter. The article features a thoughtful reflection by Michael Wright, head of programming for Time-Warner:

"...in dark times, people want bright TV. Mr. Wright believes viewers this year will turn to prime time television for comfort and joy and to renew their belief in the essential goodness of their fellow man. 'To the extent that there might be a growing sense of hope in the midst of all the gloom and doom we're looking at every day, I think television ought to reflect that.'"

Well, I certainly look to prime time TV to renew my faith in my fellow man, doesn't everyone?

The optimistic marketers may be on to something. In this the season of serious movies, "Yes Man" starring Jim Carrey as the 'guy who cain't say no' is leading at the box office. "Yes Man" won't be winning any Academy awards, if the reviews are any indication, but it does hit all the right Millennial themes. Just change your attitude, be open to life and great things will happen. It's all a matter of being open to life's essential goodness. As I watched, I couldn't help admire the parallels to Scrooge in "A Christmas Carol" and Jimmy Stewart in "It's a Wonderful Life". As with "Yes Man", these protagonists just needed an angel to transform their pessimistic outlook to one of cheery goodwill toward everyone. It's not a terrible movie, just not that original. Nevertheless, it appears to be in perfect tune Millennial values of acceptance, making the world a better place and keeping an open mind.

Eventually the pendulum will swing back and we'll be looking at meatier fare from Hollywood. But for now, kudo's to Jim Carrey for being the right guy at the right time with the right movie.